What happened
Kriminalvården estimates in a new capacity report that Sweden may need up to 45,000 prison and remand places within 15 years. The agency's annual costs are thus projected to increase from 24 billion kronor in 2026 to between 80 and 85 billion kronor each year. At the same time, the consultation process has concluded for the inquiry SOU 2026:30, which proposes abolishing the right to a single cell in remand centres and allowing detainees to be held in police custody. According to three criminologists at Stockholm University, the annual additional cost of around 60 billion kronor exceeds Minister for Finance Elisabeth Svantesson's (M) estimated fiscal space for reforms for the entire next term of office.
Our analysis
Minister for Finance Elisabeth Svantesson (M) has estimated the state's reform space at a total of 50 billion kronor over four years, but Kriminalvården's expansion alone requires an increase of around 60 billion kronor each single year. The standard debate has focused on sentence lengths, but has completely omitted where the money will come from and which public services – such as schools, healthcare, and social services – will be forced to pay through budget cuts. Inquiry SOU 2026:30 also openly acknowledges that the proposed reductions in detainees' rights will neither resolve the crisis nor create new places. Now that the consultation responses have been submitted, the decision rests with the government, which must decide whether to submit the proposals to the Riksdag despite warnings from the Parliamentary Ombudsmen (Justitieombudsmannen).
Explained
A remand centre is a secure facility where individuals are held awaiting trial, as opposed to a prison where convicted persons serve their sentence.
Correction 19 October 2026: The headline previously stated that the expansion ”costs” 60 billion more per year. That is an estimate for the next 15 years, not a cost today, so we have changed it to ”could cost”.